Application Probability Tables
RESULTS

It is important to know how often certain types of hands occur. The probability tables offer the possibility of calculating this exactly, under the condition that the hand can be described with the following two parameters:
  1. the allowable distributions of the suits
  2. the the strength of the hand in terms of a HCP-range
The chances of all partial hands are added to each other and there you are: that's all, the chance of getting a hand that belongs to your particular collection of hands has been calculated.
These calculations have been made for all the openingbids of MAF. Next table gives the brief results.
per million in %   10530 1.05% preëmptive opening on 3-level, (1 or 2 suits)
 
364173 36.42% these are PASS hands 9352 0.94% 2§ of 2¨, strong (1 suit)
 
329231 32.92% normal 1-level opening 6482 0.65% strong 3-level opening (2 suits)
 
210365 21.04% preëmptive 2-level opening (1 or 2 suits) 6534 0.65% 2§-opening, strong NT version
 
48753 4.88% normal 1NT-opening 1111 0.11% 2¨-opening, strong NT version
 
13298 1.33% 1§-opening, strong NT version 171 0.02% 2NT-opening, strong version
 
remark.: With "0" NIL is meant and "0.000" is bigger, a number between 0 en 0.00005


This table has been derived from another table and in which all possible hands are are represented with their chances of occurrence on only one piece of notebook paper. This table is in fact a comprehension of the four, fore mentioned, distributive tables.
The table, shown under MAF 1, is shaded according to the meaning of the opening bids in MAF. This might be done in the same way for different opening systems. It enables comparison of bridge systems as to the aspect of opening bids.

Somewhere else on this site you may read a few relevant FAQ's.

MAF as described in this website is a little bit different from the old type of MAF, which is dealt with in this example. Under button ODDS 3 is a table which corresponds with the described type of MAF. While doing these new calculations more attention was given to each distribution separately for each of the hcp's-intervals. Hence these results are more accurate.

Ü OVERVIEW
Ü ODDS 1
Ü ODDS 3
 

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